What are the signs of a regime crumbling and falling apart? Antony Thomas who fought against apartheid in South Africa most of his life, says 'It is unreasonable to expect unarmed people to win over the armed security apparatus of a repressive system, what happens at the end is that the very people in the ruling establishment reach a conclusion that it is impossible to continue with the status quo'.
Over the last fifteen months we have seen the circle of those still loyal to the establishment getting smaller and smaller. Karroubi described the Islamic Republic ship to have been reduced to that of a dingy boat. Significantly this week, we have seen two major defections within the Iranian Foreign Ministry's diplomatic service. The number two Iranian diplomat in Finland and the Press Attache in Belgium defected this week and openly affiliated themselves with the Green Movement. No one should underestimate these defections. These were both senior diplomats with more than 20 years service in the Iranian FMA. It must have been exceptionally hard for them to leave their positions, their careers and their privileges and risk the consequences of their decisions which includes the safety of themselves and their families. The Green Movement has embraced these courageous men with open arms and must value their sacrifices.
These defections started with the Iranian consul in Norway, Mohamad Reza Heydari. Unfortunately the media is always limited by air time and by the number of words to disseminate all the information. For example I doubt any Western media or Persian media for that matter, have reported Heydari's services during the war against Saddam Hussein. Heydari is registered with the Martyr Foundation and is classified as having received 40% injuries during the war. "The 1979 revolution has deviated from its path and from its original goals. When we fought and defended the country against Saddam, we did not envisage the country to deteriorate into the situation it is in now. What we want is for our people to gain their own destiny again and be free".
When the system starts to crumble, even the law of the land itself goes out of the window. This is what we are seeing within the Iranian judiciary. The establishment has become so desperate in preserving itself that the judiciary itself has become the biggest law breaker in the country. Prominent Human Rights lawyers like Mohamad Olyaifard and Nassrin Sotoodeh are detained for daring to defend their clients and even their lawyers and their families are threatened for publicising their plight.
The dinghy boat now seems to be full of holes, with the remaining elite forcefully and hurriedly trying to patch the holes or throwing off more passengers to continue their miserable survival.
why are you pretending to support iranians? all you care about is your fat ego?
prancing around on Al Jazeera 'look at me'...
I pray that you get your country back! God bless you all!
@Edward: Just reminded me, I had forgotten to post my last Aljazeera apperance. Thank you
Thank you for this short, but detailed and encouraging article. I fully agree with you about the crumbling. Very likely we hear only half of what is really going on in the country. Freedom for Iran! Azadi!
I wish you would post more often, Potkun-jan.
Dear Edward Woodward, feel free to F*** yourself, if there is one group of people I detest more its european offshore Basijis like you! Hopefully once the regime has fallen and every single crime it has committed is brought to the light, we will use it to shame the likes of you and bereave fools like you of every ounce of political and moral credibility, provided you ever had any.
Signs of regime collapsing on its own weight?
How do you suppose the transitional period between the Islamic Republic and a democratic Iran would look like? Somebody would have to control the government until elections for new officeholders and a Constitution take place.
Also do you think that the final push from power of the mullahs will be from pro-democracy activists? Or will it be from the poor and unemployed demanding food, electricity and gasoline? In which case, how will that affect the government? (Such a scenario was the reason for my speculation about a Communist Iran.) Or could the trigger for a final collapse of theocratic power be the secession of ethnic minorities (Azeris, Arabs) especially if they are predominantly Sunni (Kurds, Turkmen, Baluchis)?
"How do you suppose the transitional period between the Islamic Republic and a democratic Iran would look like?"
It will probably be a period of openly military dictatorship, lasting for 20 or 30 years, or until the junta is defeated in a war.
I'm sorry if I sound rude but could you answer my questions, Potkin? Thank you!
@Hidden Author: The transitional government will include those who have experience of holding government posts and have the trust and consensus of the people.
For a Communist state to succeed there is more needed than just the poor and the unemployed. One shouldnt always assume the poor and the unemployed want Communism.
May I suggest you to write about the role and position of the military elite in supporting the religious regime in the recent past? They could easily overthrow the government if they wish so. Regimes only survive if they have the backing of the military. I read an academic article a while ago (can't find it now) which stating that most of the high ranking military people were killed during the revolution. But now?...
Azarmehr wrote: "For a Communist state to succeed there is more needed than just the poor and the unemployed. One shouldnt always assume the poor and the unemployed want Communism."
Not really. The poor and unemployed are at times the most reactionary people. The poorer they are, the more religious and thus more conservative. And if you take the poor in rural areas... the peasants... the sack of potatoes, as described by Marx. Curiously, it was precisely sacks of potatoes freely distributed to the rural poor, before the elections, that helped (apart from fraud) to elect Ahmedinajad!
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