Wednesday, December 07, 2011

Eagerness for Crisis and Conflict

The regime we know as the Islamic Republic of Iran is imploding. The parallels with the writings on the wall which pre-announced the collapse of the Soviet Union are even more striking in the case of the Islamic Republic. The mismanagement of the economy, the astronomical levels of corruption, the international isolation, the factional in-fighting, the widespread popular discontent, the social catastrophes, the high levels of nepotism, the lack of support for the establishment by the society's elite and the intellectuals and the list goes on. The leaders of the IRI Co. also know this, only the most optimist delusional regime fanatic imagines the show will go on for much longer.

So what are the leaders of the IRI planning to do, to prolong their livelihoods? They look back at their track record of just over three decades and how generating crisis after crisis has saved them. One of those generated crisis moments was the US embassy hostage taking in 1979. Until then, the provisional post-revolutionary government included liberals and moderates and there was some naive cheerfulness similar to what we see today in Tunisia and Egypt.

Carter's hapless administration and lack of resolve to deal with the situation, and his clueless advisors who were referring to Khoemini as a new Gandhi, meant the hostage taking went on for 444 days. The result was a total take over of power by Iran's hardline clerics who saw their moment and seized the complete power.

The eight year war with Iraq also helped the hardliners ruthlessly destroy all dissent and opposition to the religious dictatorship.

Three decades have gone by and a new generation of young Iranians look with bemusement at the actions of the previous generation and ask why their parents led their country and their future into such abyss? The days of the gullible Carter administrators in the West also seem to be over and good riddance too. Only two groups seem entrenched in a time capsule and imagine things are the same as they were thirty years ago. The ruling Iranian clerics and the Western tyrannophiles.

What dismays me about the Western tyrannophile useful idiots is not that they want to stop a military conflict, who in their right mind wants that? It is the fact that they are barking up the wrong tree and they can't see who is beating the drums of war. I am pretty sure not one of them is even aware of a pamphlet called the Final Six Months, widely distributed amongst the Baseej militia. The pamphlet is a prophecy of a huge imminent conflict which will bring about the return of the Lord of All Ages, the Hidden Imam.  The recent events in the region have partly fulfilled the prophecy according to the pamphlet. The uprising in Yemen, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the conflict in Iraq were all meant to have happened and soon there will be more.

The enthusiasm for a conflict is all too apparent in the statements made by the head of Baseej, Commander Naghdi, just like the former head of IRGC, General Rahim Safavi, they are not talking about preparing for defence, they are talking enthusiastically about taking the initiative to attack:

'I tell you, if on this very day, the Islamic Republic attacked America, the Americans will not have the military capability to respond, they will stretch their hand out for negotiations saying come on lets somehow sort this out, not only they can't attack us but if we attack them they won't be able to respond either, really this is how it is. With what economy do they want to attack? with what support from their own people do they want to fight? with what support amongst the international public opinion? with which high spirited army? They are surrounded by us every where.The Americans are surrounded everywhere in the world by the Hezballoahi troops, where ever they make a move. Their fifth navy fleet is in Bahrain, their air base is in Qatar, they are surrounded by us every where, in Kuwait...I tell you the Baseej's most muted response to the slightest attack by the Zionist regime will be the liberation of the Quds(Jerusalem) nothing less for sure. I mean whatever happens, the Baseej members are counting the seconds, based on what is written in Imam Khomeini's thesis, its not as if it is a secret, every Muslim is duty bound to go to wherever Muslim land is occupied and join the uprising and he does not even require the blessing of the local Imam, This is a fatwa, but for reasons of secondary edicts and some international considerations and the current priorities we are biding our time, otherwise everyone is counting the moments for an excuse to come up and go and finish off these Zionists'


Waybec said...

The Regime is now hell bent on becoming the theocratic North Korea of the Middle East The question now is, will the Iranian people allow it?

asdf said...

The problem with imploding regimes is that they can cause a lot of trouble, and I'm afraid that's what we are all in for.

Juniper in the Desert said...

Why don't they just go and commit mass Basiji/IRGC suicide? They will die anyway! To say they can beat the US, even as Obozo quietly tries to lower the level of sanctions agreed by US government, is nothing less than suicidal!!
I pray for the Iranian people and hope these murderers do not take them with them when they go!

Franklin Oliveira said...

So the Islamic Republic has no reason to worry about American garrisons in Afghanistan, Iraq, the Gulf sheikhdoms as well as interference in Syria? Obviously the Islamic Republic is tyrannical but can you deny that Iran is being surrounded by imperialist forces and that it is getting more aggressive as a way of fighting back?

Anonymous said...

This post is a ridiculous example of wishful thinking, don't get me wrong I'm not a supporter of the vile IRI regime but I see no evidence that the regime is imploding. The green movement were not secular, they were backing Mousavi who is genuinely proud of his famous role in establishing hezbollah, the man's worse than A'jad. Given that the mullahs choose all "candidates" for the powerless post of "president" the greens' claim that there was a "stolen election" make no sense since there was nothing to steal, either they don't understand how the regime they supposedly want to overthrow actually works or they just want a different ceremonial figurehead. Besides the green movement is pretty much dead anyway and until Persian democracts can unite with the oppressed Ahwai Arabs, Kurds and Hazaras (ignored by the so-called Iranian dissidents) the regime is here to stay.

Anonymous said...

No offense but your "main objective in life" isn't remotely realistic the majority of the people living in the vile IRI regime have been fed a steady source anti-Semitism, misogyny, Persian chauvinism and theocratic politics expecting a democracy to arise is like expecting a fish to starting breathing oxygen. I'd suggest developing healthier more realistic interests so as to avoid wasting your life on a vision of Iran that won't come.

James Vaughan said...

To Juniper in the Desert: I believe the Mullahs, the Baseej and the IRGC, who I have read proved themselves to be complete cowards during the Sadam war, are planning to repeat their disgusting shenanigans and make sure the poor Iranian people and the youth are the ones to be killed.