Tuesday, December 04, 2007

US INtelligence Report on Iran

I have never commented on Islamic Republic's nuclear weapons program, simply because I don't have any information nor any expertise on this subject. I do however know that US intelligence on Iran is bollocks, they have no substantial knowledge or intelligence on Iran.

My instincts have always been to be against not only nuclear weapons but against nuclear energy too, not only for Iran but for any country in the world. The risks of more accidents like Chernobyl frighten me to no end. Similarly I have been against any military attacks on Iran and instead have always solicited international public support for the pro-democracy movement in Iran.

I do however have first hand experience of US State department officials and their lack of intelligence on Iran, which spans over three decades. I have witnessed a full blown revolution take place right after Jimmy Carter stated "Iran was an island of stability in a turbulent region". I have witnessed US officials refer to Khomeini as a "saint" and as "Iran's Gandhi". I have read how US intelligence had concluded that there was no danger to its diplomats in the US embassy in Tehran just before the embassy was taken over by pro-Khomeini students and the US diplomats were taken as hostages for 444 days. I have read how time and time again the US officials trusted the Iranian authorities that the US hostage crisis will soon be resolved. I have witnessed US officials apologise for the US role in the 1953 coup, to the very people who supported and benefited from the coup against the secular Iranian prime minister, i.e. disciples of Ayatollah Kashani, who are now in power in Iran.

I was part of a group of five Iranian ex-pats who took part in the first IVLP program for Iranians since the Islamic revolution. During our visit, we had several meetings with the US state department officials. We were told in black and white, several times that the US had no official policy for regime change in Iran but was intent on changing the behaviour of the Iranian regime. When I asked how they intended to change the behaviour of the regime, I was told "we have a web site", and it was the crappiest, most useless and most unknown website I have ever come across.

We also met with a lot of think tanks, from Michael Rubin in AEI to Hadi Semati in the Brooklyn institute. None of the officials or think tank people we saw ever supported a military attack on Iran or suggested it was on the cards.

In my view the whole notion of attacking Iran has been something trumped up by the media and, and it has never been suggested by any US State department officials. On the contrary all US administrations since Jimmy Carter, have always tried to appease the Islamic Republic, and they have always been outdone by the Islamic Republic.

The result of all this hubba hubba has been detrimental to the Iranian pro-democracy movement. Islamic Republic apologists and agents have formed well funded organised groups who have urged the international public opinion to turn a blind eye on human rights abuses by the clerical regime in Iran, under the justification that Iran faces an imminent military attack. Progressive and active groups have been reluctant to support the protests by Iranian women, workers, students, teachers etc. for fear of propagating an attack on Iran.

Iranian opposition have been accused of receiving money from US administration, although the truth is that no one but VOA Persian and Radio Farda got any of the much publicised allocated budget, and we all know how these institutions have wasted this money through the management's cronyism and nepotism on useless "special reports" like traffic in Karachi. All this media hubba hubba about an imminent attack on Iran has meant over shadowing of human rights abuses and peaceful protests in the news.

Also the perception of an Iranian nuclear threat has basically meant the continuation of the appeasement policy as well as people like me, with Iranian backgrounds, being held in US airports for over two hours by another super not-intelligent US agency, the Homeland Security, while Iranian officials visit the US with ease and make speeches and fund their umbrella organisations!

So in a way, I welcome this latest US intelligence report. Perhaps now Islamic Republic funded Groups like CASMII, Iran Action and individuals like Tritta Parsi and Elaheh Rostami, Abbas Edalat, etc. can go back in their holes and the world can take notice of an overwhelming majority of Iranians who want change and deserve a better more accountable government than these figures from the dark ages who are interfering in Iranian people's daily lives.

Although as before I wouldn't give a tuppence for any US "intelligence" reports. It wasn't just in Iran and in Iraq that they were wrong. Four months before the 1956 uprising in Hungary, a CIA report had concluded - "There really is no underground movement in Hungary at all".

16 comments:

City boy said...

Well pointed out.. I am still confused about how they can be so stupid.

Mehrdad said...

It seems that the last of the Iranian messiahs:
The hidden Imam
We need another Reza Shah
Americans will soon come and save our soul
namely the Yankee imam, is finally withering away in the Iranian eyes, by the sheer display
of its famous dunce :)

Although the assumption [or rather the attribution] of "intelligence" to any American administration
after that of T. Jefferson is a risky task but, I'm personally glad to see the evaporation of all
these superstitions & empty hopes.

In the words of a famous American Marxist:

Poverty breeds lack of self-reliance ;-) [ kas nakhaarad poshteh man, joz naakhon-e...]

Mehrdad said...

It seems that the last of the Iranian messiahs:
The hidden Imam
We need another Reza Shah
Americans will soon come and save our soul
namely the Yankee imam, is finally withering away in the Iranian eyes, by the sheer display
of its famous dunce :)

Although the assumption [or rather the attribution] of "intelligence" to any American administration
after that of T. Jefferson is a risky task but, I'm personally glad to see the evaporation of all
these superstitions & empty hopes.

In the words of a famous American Marxist:

Poverty breeds lack of self-reliance ;-) [ kas nakhaarad poshteh man, joz naakhon-e...]


Mehrdad

Anonymous said...

Even this baseless intelligence report is NOT serving the interests of the Islamic republic of Iran in medium term , because ,the halt of nuclear weaponization in 2003 ( during Khatami) is attributed to US and International pressure ,so it urges more diplomatic and economic pressure which ultimately will be more painful for Islamic regime and the poor people as well.

Anonymous said...

See this:
http://newsmax.com/timmerman/

M. said...

It seems that the last of the Iranian messiahs:
The hidden Imam
We need another Reza Shah
Americans will soon come and save our soul
namely the Yankee imam, is finally withering away in the Iranian eyes, by the sheer display
of its famous dunce :)

Although the assumption [or rather the attribution] of "intelligence" to any American administration
after that of T. Jefferson is a risky task but, I'm personally glad to see the evaporation of all
these superstitions & empty hopes.

In the words of a famous American Marxist:

Poverty breeds lack of self-reliance ;-) [ kas nakhaarad poshteh man, joz naakhon-e...]

Anonymous said...

Even this baseless intelligence report is NOT serving the interests of the Islamic republic of Iran in medium term , because ,the halt of nuclear weaponization in 2003 ( during Khatami) is attributed to US and International pressure ,so it urges more diplomatic and economic pressure which ultimately will be more painful for Islamic regime and the poor people as well.

Borzoo said...

Read how US has been duped again:
http://newsmax.com/timmerman/

Pasha said...

The Islamic Republic is with or without nuclear weapons a dangerous fascistic regime.

Winston said...

This new NIE which is co-sponsored by bunch of Democrats, the same people who helped install Khomeini, is produced to make President Bush look bad when it comes to Iran. This NIE report is bogus and invalid.

saggezard said...

I suppose Trita Parsi was just signaling with subtlety when he published his Treacherous Alliance book

farhad said...

it's my first visit!
your job seems to be nice
all reports or any thing like that is a play ! and we 'persian people' are involuntary player..

in my opinion some thing happening 'back to curain' ! that we don't know .
i don't know , who knows the solution for iran. hope it'll be found in near future..
i'm not a politician man, just i hope to have free and democratic irannnnnnnnnnnnnnnn.

farhad, shiraz-uk

Farinaz Aryanfar said...

Ok what have you done to the Potkin I know and who the hell are you? ;) This is so not you!
Your article really has a big lack of having sources!
(I have witnessed US officials refer to Khomeini as a "saint" and as "Iran's Gandhi"): who? when? where published? (Im not saying it did not happen, Im saying you lack of setting sources beneath or in the article)
By the way this part of your article: "I have read how US(...) in power in iran." --> it's just politics potkin jan! get over it. It has nothing to do with lack of intelligence in CIA. Your analyzing skills are shrinking I think.
You say: "None of the officials or think tank people we saw ever supported a military attack on Iran or suggested it was on the cards." --> Come on! You are misinforming people! I was there when you guys (I did too) met M.Ledeen, and everyone knows that he wanted to bomb bomb Iran and he wanted it faster please! (and this is just ONE example)
and where you said: "In my view the whole notion of attacking Iran has been something trumped up by the media and, and it has never been suggested by any US State department officials." ->> Potkiiiiiiiiin! have you totally gone crazy? what has happened to you since 20 months ago? you are living in delusion I guess! Do you ever listen to speaches made by Mr. Bush or Mr. Cheney? A year ago we saw Mr.Pearl (who is the mastermind behind many Iranian/american so called think tanks)? We talked to him face to face. Have you lost your memory or so?
Look potkin, The attack (which was the result of Iran's regime neglecting International laws), just had nothing to do with opposition's means of how to discharge the regime. Unfortunately enough, part of the opposition had put their claws on the US pro-war officials, just because they had no means at all for how to knock over the government in Iran by themselves!
Dealing with our government is up to us, not up to anyone else!
dealing with it's ommision is up to international courts or security council. we mixed these two. we blew it. BUT now there won't be a military invasion so we got a second chance.

Bahramerad said...

No, my dear winston.
I reckon that there is quite a lot of truth in this report except that it is out of date by about 4 years. Think of the support that the British and the Americans have given to the Fascist-Mullah's and now If try to remember the laughing Ayatollah Jack straw and Mullah Rowhani.-never mind Tony Blair-The Mr. FIX IT- and the secrets that was cooked up between them and then the trip that G W Bush did to Her Majesty the Queen to thank her personally in stooping him attacking Iran and instead going into Iraq. you will know the originis and the way all this stacks up.
These kinds of behind the scene shenanigans have always been rife between The British, The Americans and The Mullah's since the 1900's — since the god damn Oil was discovered in Iran and these greedy bastards started to play politics with the lives of the Iranian People. Will we ever wake up-will we ever learn-Will we ever get ride of these 3 evil forces from the life of our nation?
I guess only when the Oil runs out!

Winston said...

I dont think Americans or even Brits support the mullahs in any way. I dont believe in conspiracy theories.

Anonymous said...

America's power is in its economy and in its military, and evidently not in its intelligence on world affairs.